DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 23 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Team Liquid 69%Talon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusamiCKe
WindrangerMikoto
Beastmasterzai
Slark23savage
PangolierNisha
Anti-MageJabz
EnchantressiNSaNiA
BatriderQ
TechiesBoxi
PugnaOli
Game 2prediction missed9:25
Team Liquid 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
Anti-MageJabz
Storm SpiritNisha
Magnus23savage
Legion Commanderzai
WindrangerMikoto
VenomancerBoxi
BatriderQ
PugnaiNSaNiA
SilencerOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2