?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 45 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 34 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 27 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
33%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 24 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 455 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 522 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
429 picks · 200 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 580 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 403 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 602 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 176 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
261 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:27
Team Liquid 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
54% · 117 games43% · 167 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
46% · 299 games44% · 100 games
KunkkaMikoto
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackSabeRLight-
61% · 255 games48% · 135 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Omniknight
OmniknightiNSaNiA
50% · 63 games49% · 319 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
59% · 107 games45% · 120 games
Nature's ProphetKuku
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction missed23:49
Team Liquid 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
59% · 43 games45% · 177 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 211 games47% · 206 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
42% · 71 game53% · 147 games
MarsWs
Mars
Bristleback
BristlebackSabeRLight-
54% · 293 games53% · 80 games
Shadow ShamanKuku
Shadow Shaman
Marci
MarciBoxi
47% · 139 games54% · 147 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2