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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
73%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
60%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 36 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 23 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Visage
Visagesignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 392 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
476 picks · 708 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 521 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 471 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 671 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 387 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
271 picks · 862 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 371 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Team Liquid 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
45% · 78 games42% · 28 games
SniperMonet
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMATUMBAMAN
50% · 158 games46% · 163 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Mars
Marszai
45% · 224 games56% · 326 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Marci
MarciBoxi
53% · 155 games54% · 93 games
Crystal MaidenBoBoKa
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
51% · 76 games54% · 81 game
SvenFantasy
Sven
Game 2prediction correct15:21
Team Liquid 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
48% · 81 game53% · 139 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
49% · 99 games47% · 86 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
54% · 145 games44% · 55 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
46% · 47 games44% · 73 games
LichFantasy
Lich
Marci
MarciBoxi
55% · 185 games54% · 204 games
SnapfireBoBoKa
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2