BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TATeam Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
Force · 10 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
608 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
528 picks · 529 bans
Puck
390 picks · 1094 bans
Hoodwink
362 picks · 191 bans
Mars
352 picks · 592 bans
Pugna
348 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Team Liquid 61%Team Aureus 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
AbaddonNatsumi
BrewmasterAce
Templar AssassinYopaj
Storm SpiritNisha
BristlebackForce
MarstOfu
HoodwinkTims
SnapfireBoxi
BaneSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1