FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Tusk
Boxi · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 20 games
Tiny
miCKe · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Team Cobra
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
644 picks · 318 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 567 bans
Puck
408 picks · 1144 bans
Hoodwink
406 picks · 214 bans
Mars
374 picks · 626 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 269 bans
Pugna
355 picks · 399 bans
Warlock
353 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
Team Liquid 82%Team Cobra 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
AbaddonK1
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Ember SpiritPiPi
PuckNisha
EnigmaFrank
HoodwinkBoxi
TuskElmisho
WarlocktOfu
JakiroMoOz
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Team Liquid 83%Team Cobra 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidmiCKe
JuggernautK1
MarciAce
PangolierFrank
Primal BeastNisha
Queen of PainPiPi
SilencertOfu
HoodwinkElmisho
SnapfireBoxi
BaneMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 95%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2