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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 32 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 27 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
59%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 54 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 30 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 27 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 722 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 746 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
468 picks · 464 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 354 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 497 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 931 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Team Liquid 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
46% · 162 games58% · 137 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
56% · 175 games49% · 33 games
DazzleMalr1ne
Dazzle
Invoker
InvokerNisha
47% · 136 games50% · 155 games
MarsATF
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
50% · 20 games50% · 134 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
49% · 152 games44% · 186 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed37:34
Team Liquid 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:15:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
48% · 180 games46% · 76 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 302 games46% · 35 games
ViperATF
Viper
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
59% · 67 games48% · 402 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
50% · 170 games44% · 130 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
56% · 10 games56% · 86 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2