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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 29 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 29 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
523 picks · 556 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 416 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 866 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 481 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 303 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 899 bans
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 644 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Team Liquid 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
54% · 119 games45% · 131 game
SvenSkiter
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
45% · 55 games50% · 135 games
MarsATF
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
44% · 142 games49% · 135 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Naga Siren
Naga SireniNSaNiA
61% · 110 games49% · 38 games
GrimstrokeCr1t-
Grimstroke
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
52% · 230 games50% · 217 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed31:33
Team Liquid 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
50% · 240 games48% · 20 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
53% · 124 games43% · 382 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
54% · 59 games61% · 132 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Puck
PuckBoxi
45% · 204 games50% · 170 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
53% · 197 games44% · 120 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2