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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 46 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 31 game
77%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
tOfu · 25 games
76%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 29 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 516 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 412 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 542 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 250 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 916 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 990 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
385 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total51% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:44
Team Liquid 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
57% · 244 games49% · 481 game
TinySkiter
Tiny
Puck
PuckNisha
52% · 424 games52% · 210 games
DawnbreakerATF
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierAce
46% · 315 games50% · 400 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Rubick
RubicktOfu
45% · 146 games52% · 202 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
51% · 335 games46% · 171 game
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed38:13
Team Liquid 47%Team Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
48% · 420 games49% · 279 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Kez
KezmiCKe
50% · 213 games58% · 173 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderAce
53% · 432 games49% · 293 games
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Io
IoEkki
45% · 75 games55% · 284 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiestOfu
46% · 96 games46% · 207 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct32:52
Team Liquid 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:14:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
50% · 202 games49% · 146 games
DoomATF
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
51% · 249 games49% · 288 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Io
IoEkki
37% · 50 games52% · 128 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderAce
57% · 261 game52% · 135 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Oracle
OracletOfu
54% · 59 games47% · 124 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 51%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3