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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
100%

Team Secret

Puck
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 3 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 3 games
67%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Nisha · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
MATUMBAMAN · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
190 picks · 420 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
174 picks · 322 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
164 picks · 231 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
163 picks · 134 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
141 picks · 159 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 217 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 421 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
119 picks · 67 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:28
Team Liquid 39%Team Secret 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 59:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanqojqva
62% · 8 games48% · 36 games
Nature's Prophetzai
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsmiCKe
50% · 20 gameslittle data
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
52% · 13 games46% · 10 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Puck
PuckTaiga
44% · 34 games63% · 23 games
EarthshakerYapzOr
Earthshaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
26% · 11 games57% · 17 games
LionPuppey
Lion
Game 2prediction correct15:35
Team Liquid 42%Team Secret 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IomiCKe
59% · 7 gameslittle data
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritqojqva
57% · 6 games44% · 17 games
MorphlingNisha
Morphling
Rubick
RubickTaiga
50% · 14 games48% · 13 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarBoxi
little datalittle data
Dark WillowYapzOr
Dark Willow
Abaddon
AbaddoniNSaNiA
57% · 3 gameslittle data
BanePuppey
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 68%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2