OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Snapfire
iNSaNiA · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
Iooften banned
Boxi · 4 games
Team Secret
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 502 bans
Snapfire
305 picks · 172 bans
Bane
295 picks · 234 bans
Weaver
282 picks · 637 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 728 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 393 bans
Ember Spirit
227 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
221 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:35
Team Liquid 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMATUMBAMAN
LunaNisha
Ember SpiritmiCKe
PuckSumaiL
Outworld Destroyerzai
Nature's Propheticeiceice
PangolierBoxi
SnapfirePuppey
WeaveriNSaNiA
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
Game 2prediction correct26:33
Team Liquid 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokermiCKe
Timbersawiceiceice
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
MorphlingNisha
Marszai
Spirit BreakerSumaiL
WeaverBoxi
EnchantressPuppey
UndyingiNSaNiA
SnapfireYapzOr
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2