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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
90%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
11%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zai · 8 games
50%

Team Secret

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 6 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
YapzOr · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
YapzOr · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 434 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 695 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 535 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
433 picks · 291 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 602 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 595 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
343 picks · 506 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
Team Liquid 58%Team Secret 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
55% · 62 games56% · 37 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Necrophos
NecrophosmiCKe
53% · 34 games48% · 114 games
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
51% · 111 games48% · 102 games
Vipericeiceice
Viper
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoxi
50% · 173 games44% · 112 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
52% · 125 games48% · 140 games
IoPuppey
Io
Game 2prediction missed26:36
Team Liquid 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMATUMBAMAN
42% · 49 games54% · 165 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzai
47% · 65 games53% · 204 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinymiCKe
47% · 295 games55% · 141 game
Dragon Knighticeiceice
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
51% · 273 games51% · 103 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
48% · 34 games49% · 103 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2