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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 26 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
iNSaNiA · 14 games
57%

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 21 game
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 17 games
65%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 17 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 338 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
329 picks · 329 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
220 picks · 234 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 531 bans
52%
Leshrac
Leshrac
195 picks · 418 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
193 picks · 152 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 107 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
Team Liquid 47%Team Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
55% · 172 games53% · 85 games
LycanResolut1on
Lycan
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
41% · 89 games47% · 215 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderNisha
45% · 124 games51% · 179 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
49% · 172 games54% · 103 games
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
49% · 215 games54% · 190 games
BanePuppey
Bane
Game 2prediction missed46:18
Team Liquid 47%Team Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
39% · 88 games51% · 222 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Sniper
SniperNisha
49% · 62 games50% · 149 games
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Tiny
TinymiCKe
49% · 502 games49% · 233 games
MiranaResolut1on
Mirana
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
52% · 204 games56% · 121 game
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
51% · 175 games52% · 306 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2