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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 33 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 27 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 18 games
67%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Ekki · 13 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 634 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 736 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 558 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 160 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 338 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 755 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 552 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:33
Team Liquid 63%Team Secret 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
43% · 85 games52% · 171 game
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Zeus
ZeusNisha
41% · 50 games65% · 100 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Kunkka
Kunkka33
47% · 87 games49% · 37 games
MarciThiolicor
Marci
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
48% · 117 games48% · 67 games
IoPuppey
Io
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
52% · 36 games
Game 2prediction correct60:26
Team Liquid 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 56:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
57% · 230 games50% · 121 game
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
60% · 86 games51% · 276 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Kunkka
Kunkka33
43% · 190 games49% · 313 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
51% · 120 games36% · 41 game
Winter WyvernPuppey
Winter Wyvern
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
49% · 125 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2