Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 39 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 27 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 32 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 29 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Snapfire
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
635 picks · 682 bans
Rubick
491 picks · 316 bans
Batrider
435 picks · 909 bans
Doom
412 picks · 894 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 830 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Pugna
368 picks · 432 bans
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 842 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Liquid 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Liquid 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Game 3prediction missed
Team Liquid 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3