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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 30 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 505 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 350 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 462 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
304 picks · 359 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 596 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
261 picks · 135 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
257 picks · 258 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
255 picks · 141 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:25
Team Liquid 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
44% · 51 game54% · 240 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 189 games56% · 285 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
51% · 357 games54% · 211 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
42% · 149 games49% · 136 games
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Tusk
TuskiNSaNiA
44% · 299 games53% · 173 games
Lionrue
Lion
Game 2prediction missed23:34
Team Liquid 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
55% · 205 games48% · 312 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
46% · 85 games45% · 67 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
52% · 308 games48% · 171 game
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Tusk
TuskiNSaNiA
44% · 185 games53% · 269 games
Lionrue
Lion
Techies
TechiesBoxi
48% · 156 games61% · 120 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed20:33
Team Liquid 60%Team Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
48% · 129 games54% · 203 games
GyrocopterSatanic
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
55% · 134 games43% · 187 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
48% · 206 games48% · 35 games
Anti-MageMalik
Anti-Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
57% · 335 games46% · 188 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
52% · 25 games49% · 216 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3