Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Ticklesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Leshracoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
Iooften banned
Boxi · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 4 games
Linaoften banned
qojqva · 4 games
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
333 picks · 477 bans
Snapfire
285 picks · 164 bans
Bane
274 picks · 217 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 595 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 712 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 392 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 303 bans
Lion
213 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:26
Team Liquid 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:48.
Game 2prediction correct9:22
Team Liquid 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 23:22.
Game 3prediction missed36:22
Team Liquid 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3