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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 32 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 414 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 853 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
405 picks · 456 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 340 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:34
Team Liquid 47%Team Tidebound 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 51:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
52% · 365 games53% · 313 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
46% · 470 games49% · 371 game
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
50% · 376 games48% · 314 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
58% · 284 games45% · 468 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockTobi
53% · 255 games46% · 284 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed30:28
Team Liquid 47%Team Tidebound 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
44% · 185 games56% · 275 games
Bristlebackshiro
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
46% · 321 game54% · 286 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
53% · 20 games43% · 105 games
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockTobi
44% · 176 games52% · 249 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
50% · 245 games65% · 32 games
Baney`
Bane
Game 3prediction missed23:37
Team Liquid 48%Team Tidebound 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
56% · 186 games49% · 184 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
44% · 88 games53% · 304 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
46% · 206 games51% · 144 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
47% · 299 games57% · 176 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorTobi
47% · 84 games50% · 55 games
Axey`
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 52%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3