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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
547 picks · 574 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
384 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 491 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 328 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 862 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
314 picks · 677 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:27
Team Liquid 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
45% · 253 games47% · 198 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
46% · 132 games57% · 305 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
45% · 206 games53% · 187 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
54% · 175 games55% · 116 games
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 428 games48% · 388 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Team Liquid 57%Team Tidebound 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
47% · 79 games54% · 183 games
Doomshiro
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
48% · 314 games48% · 238 games
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
56% · 73 games45% · 169 games
PhoenixFaith_bian
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
46% · 219 games59% · 194 games
Ember SpiritpLAnet
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
47% · 161 game52% · 62 games
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2