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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
58%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
50%

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 19 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 405 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 193 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 345 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 799 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 844 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 391 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 217 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
279 picks · 537 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Team Liquid 55%Team Tidebound 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
46% · 280 games58% · 179 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
46% · 118 games56% · 221 game
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
49% · 118 games53% · 113 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
44% · 95 games55% · 105 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
45% · 130 games48% · 123 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed13:24
Team Liquid 57%Team Tidebound 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
56% · 95 games53% · 258 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 204 games50% · 162 games
UndyingFaith_bian
Undying
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
45% · 185 games56% · 168 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
41% · 71 game47% · 123 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 283 games53% · 127 games
Ogre Magiy`
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2