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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 37 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 29 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 20 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 31 game
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 31 game
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 25 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 21 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 956 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 627 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 972 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 463 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 521 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
413 picks · 253 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:19
Team Liquid 56%Team Yandex 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
57% · 231 game44% · 154 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
49% · 189 games55% · 74 games
RazorChira JUNIOR
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
51% · 376 games47% · 142 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
45% · 20 games45% · 319 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
52% · 255 games49% · 382 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct31:39
Team Liquid 54%Team Yandex 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
52% · 119 games50% · 107 games
ViperChira JUNIOR
Viper
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
46% · 220 games51% · 277 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
58% · 392 games50% · 404 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Dazzle
DazzletOfu
49% · 188 games50% · 411 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Tusk
TuskBoxi
45% · 563 games51% · 283 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2