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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 10 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
88%

Thunder Awaken

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
94%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 15 games
87%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 13 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
90%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
457 picks · 626 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 281 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 484 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
394 picks · 518 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 543 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 518 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 488 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 80%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:44
Team Liquid 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
54% · 223 games46% · 121 game
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
60% · 83 games54% · 66 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Mars
MarsmiCKe
50% · 493 games41% · 368 games
SnapfireSacred
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoxi
48% · 290 games47% · 290 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Io
IoiNSaNiA
51% · 263 games52% · 507 games
BanePanda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Team Liquid 37%Thunder Awaken 63%
The model gave 63% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
47% · 47 games50% · 14 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
48% · 218 games50% · 183 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightzai
50% · 84 games53% · 121 game
WeaverSacred
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBoxi
47% · 38 games52% · 77 games
DoomMatthew
Doom
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
48% · 88 games53% · 80 games
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 69%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2