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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 9 games
89%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 7 games
86%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
miCKe · 6 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 272 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
408 picks · 536 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 445 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 485 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 550 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 300 bans
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
276 picks · 507 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 371 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:22
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMATUMBAMAN
48% · 162 games51% · 279 games
LinaNine
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainmiCKe
49% · 227 games48% · 98 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Axe
Axezai
50% · 100 games48% · 240 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
53% · 204 games57% · 206 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Io
IoiNSaNiA
47% · 157 games43% · 27 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Team Liquid 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
63% · 35 games49% · 224 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
49% · 145 games53% · 192 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritmiCKe
40% · 160 games48% · 55 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
53% · 173 games51% · 220 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
49% · 234 games51% · 56 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed37:9
Team Liquid 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
little data55% · 160 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
Timbersawzai
49% · 140 games51% · 127 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
45% · 165 games57% · 121 game
Sand King33
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
46% · 240 games36% · 6 games
TechiesSaksa
Techies
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
48% · 16 games53% · 147 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3