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Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 9 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
88%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
75%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
miCKe · 7 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 16 games
69%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 583 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 465 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 750 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
340 picks · 463 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 483 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 430 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 436 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:35
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMATUMBAMAN
52% · 242 games36% · 84 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersawzai
54% · 147 games52% · 264 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
50% · 267 games49% · 194 games
Pangolier33
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
53% · 156 games45% · 208 games
GrimstrokeSaksa
Grimstroke
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
56% · 118 games52% · 180 games
IoSneyking
Io
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMATUMBAMAN
49% · 93 games52% · 194 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Mars
Marszai
50% · 515 games54% · 293 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
47% · 280 games57% · 146 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
54% · 126 games52% · 245 games
WeaverSaksa
Weaver
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
44% · 108 games43% · 244 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2