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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Io
Iosignature
Boxi · 24 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%

Tundra Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 178 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 395 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
231 picks · 408 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
230 picks · 361 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
222 picks · 338 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 442 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
216 picks · 419 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
213 picks · 395 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
Team Liquid 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
48% · 41 game57% · 3 games
DazzleTopson
Dazzle
Lycan
Lycanzai
56% · 67 games49% · 108 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
48% · 30 games47% · 71 game
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
54% · 53 games50% · 16 games
BaneNine
Bane
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
54% · 39 games43% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed47:38
Team Liquid 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
45% · 26 games57% · 75 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Omniknight
OmniknightNisha
58% · 14 games20% · 6 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritzai
44% · 43 games55% · 81 game
Void SpiritTopson
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerBoxi
41% · 56 games51% · 77 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
55% · 131 game48% · 31 game
GrimstrokeNine
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2