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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Sven
Svensignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 327 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 480 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 398 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 367 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
266 picks · 184 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
261 picks · 144 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 477 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
Team Liquid 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
52% · 172 games49% · 141 game
LunaPure~
Luna
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
57% · 64 games44% · 108 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Puck
PuckNisha
57% · 171 game45% · 278 games
TinyTopson
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
53% · 161 game55% · 89 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
41% · 340 games51% · 292 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Team Liquid 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNisha
45% · 140 games53% · 94 games
Troll WarlordPure~
Troll Warlord
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
44% · 143 games55% · 220 games
Keeper of the LightTopson
Keeper of the Light
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
42% · 163 games55% · 167 games
Death Prophetlaise
Death Prophet
Lion
LionBoxi
44% · 152 games63% · 255 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
46% · 446 games54% · 308 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2