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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 14 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 11 games
73%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 21 game
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 653 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 357 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 791 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 413 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
354 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:4
Team Liquid 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
44% · 153 games47% · 215 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
51% · 107 games55% · 180 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
44% · 117 games55% · 38 games
VisageTobi
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
49% · 203 games53% · 180 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 140 games55% · 107 games
GyrocopterWhitemon
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct28:3
Team Liquid 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
42% · 135 games47% · 177 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
55% · 113 games51% · 198 games
TinyTopson
Tiny
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
46% · 124 games52% · 82 games
EnigmaTobi
Enigma
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 115 games54% · 61 game
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
54% · 127 games52% · 96 games
Gyrocopter9Class
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2