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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
52%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
68%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 26 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
396 picks · 511 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
367 picks · 359 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 461 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
307 picks · 360 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
295 picks · 573 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 260 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:10
Team Liquid 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
49% · 244 games50% · 61 game
BloodseekerNightfall
Bloodseeker
Invoker
InvokerNisha
53% · 106 games51% · 101 game
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
44% · 364 games54% · 242 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
51% · 238 games48% · 261 game
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
49% · 27 games52% · 314 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed34:22
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
54% · 131 game43% · 54 games
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
60% · 74 games46% · 195 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
57% · 320 games47% · 249 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
45% · 131 game47% · 92 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
53% · 36 games48% · 102 games
LionSaksa
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2