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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
56%
Axe
Axeoften banned
33 · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
579 picks · 290 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
512 picks · 518 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 1058 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 389 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
341 picks · 176 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 578 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
326 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Team Liquid 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
51% · 290 games52% · 296 games
AbaddonPure~
Abaddon
Puck
PuckNisha
47% · 303 games43% · 408 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
55% · 150 games56% · 211 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
48% · 294 games46% · 311 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskBoxi
50% · 368 games52% · 179 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1