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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 20 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
673 picks · 323 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
567 picks · 581 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
433 picks · 227 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1161 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 646 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 257 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 157 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 6
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:46
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
43% · 3 games57% · 104 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
47% · 258 games53% · 173 games
MarciPure~
Marci
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
40% · 168 games52% · 90 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Bane
BanetOfu
52% · 182 games54% · 306 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
47% · 297 games51% · 235 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
59% · 451 game46% · 355 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
50% · 525 games44% · 255 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordAce
47% · 95 games49% · 482 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
54% · 331 game53% · 378 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 487 games48% · 419 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct26:34
Team Liquid 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
55% · 223 games42% · 12 games
KezPure~
Kez
Venomancer
VenomancerNisha
56% · 17 games53% · 173 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierAce
47% · 242 games49% · 309 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
41% · 233 games57% · 76 games
Bounty HunterAri
Bounty Hunter
Bane
BanetOfu
52% · 125 games48% · 270 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3