?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 24 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 874 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 527 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 411 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
437 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1036 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 669 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 579 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 560 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 8
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:40
Team Liquid 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
48% · 175 games51% · 223 games
Doom33
Doom
Mars
MarsAce
40% · 204 games63% · 23 games
MeepoParker
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
49% · 349 games48% · 585 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Mirana
MiranatOfu
50% · 43 games54% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
51% · 291 game54% · 85 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Team Liquid 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAce
50% · 284 games46% · 423 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
61% · 203 games48% · 121 game
Huskarbzm
Huskar
Tiny
TinyNisha
47% · 534 games48% · 302 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Marci
MarciBoxi
51% · 211 games52% · 603 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
48% · 706 games50% · 489 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct38:6
Team Liquid 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
49% · 192 games52% · 238 games
BristlebackParker
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
49% · 346 games52% · 335 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Mars
MarsAce
46% · 292 games46% · 244 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Oracle
OracletOfu
42% · 59 games56% · 127 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
51% · 232 games54% · 177 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3