?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 27 games
41%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
46%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 10 games
90%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Yds · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 412 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
441 picks · 677 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 725 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
309 picks · 424 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 481 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
279 picks · 351 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 843 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 445 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:39
Team Liquid 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
57% · 32 games51% · 109 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
58% · 30 games48% · 244 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
54% · 59 games61% · 46 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyBoxi
46% · 328 games49% · 156 games
UndyingYang
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireiNSaNiA
43% · 247 games46% · 141 game
TuskFrisk
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Team Liquid 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMATUMBAMAN
62% · 9 games49% · 79 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
53% · 43 games43% · 91 game
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerzai
44% · 30 games53% · 33 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
47% · 128 games56% · 21 game
Witch DoctorYang
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
52% · 71 game57% · 57 games
EarthshakerFrisk
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct18:3
Team Liquid 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
43% · 43 games50% · 113 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
46% · 32 games50% · 160 games
PuckXm
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
58% · 205 games52% · 52 games
Lycanniu
Lycan
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 136 games42% · 115 games
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
52% · 134 games53% · 110 games
ClockwerkYang
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3