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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 31 game
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
70%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
52%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
XinQ · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
40%
Largo
Largosignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Kez
Kezsignature
shiro · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 365 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 656 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 209 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 354 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
326 picks · 358 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 445 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
311 picks · 233 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 333 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
Team Liquid 60%Vici Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 485 games53% · 384 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Lina
LinaNisha
46% · 51 game51% · 289 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Underlord
UnderlordAce
51% · 244 games42% · 362 games
RubickXm
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
50% · 631 game55% · 118 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
48% · 297 games48% · 555 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed22:28
Team Liquid 63%Vici Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
52% · 150 games53% · 61 game
Lone Druidshiro
Lone Druid
Viper
ViperNisha
48% · 107 games43% · 74 games
NecrophosFaith_bian
Necrophos
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
56% · 270 games42% · 275 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
58% · 145 games54% · 318 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverntOfu
46% · 82 games43% · 26 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct26:14
Team Liquid 61%Vici Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
41% · 144 games41% · 56 games
Lunashiro
Luna
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
55% · 178 games50% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
LargoAce
53% · 211 games48% · 189 games
SnapfireXm
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranatOfu
54% · 94 games47% · 304 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
57% · 173 games49% · 74 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3