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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
39%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 23 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 424 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 658 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 754 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
330 picks · 452 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
290 picks · 363 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
257 picks · 832 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:7
Team Liquid 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMATUMBAMAN
50% · 67 games45% · 45 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
50% · 12 games50% · 131 game
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 173 games49% · 25 games
BroodmotherDM
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
52% · 54 games51% · 109 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
54% · 56 games44% · 52 games
Vengeful SpiritXakoda
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed42:19
Team Liquid 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainmiCKe
49% · 236 games50% · 201 game
LinagpK~
Lina
Lifestealer
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
41% · 47 games53% · 129 games
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
Chaos Knight
Magnus
Magnuszai
61% · 29 games51% · 133 games
BatriderDM
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoxi
54% · 294 games51% · 127 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
49% · 101 game45% · 117 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2