?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 35 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 29 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 9 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 694 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 712 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 425 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 325 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 964 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 439 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 886 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:10
Team Liquid 78%Wildcard Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 295 games48% · 157 games
AlchemistYamSun
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerNisha
44% · 143 games44% · 25 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
62% · 131 game46% · 310 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
48% · 155 games49% · 119 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
63% · 25 games49% · 138 games
WeaverBignum
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Team Liquid 80%Wildcard Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
51% · 411 games47% · 121 game
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 250 games50% · 399 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
59% · 118 games45% · 266 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
53% · 22 games52% · 151 game
WeaverBignum
Weaver
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
51% · 267 games44% · 131 game
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 92%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2