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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 27 games
41%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 14 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 10 games
30%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 418 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
448 picks · 683 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
315 picks · 434 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 737 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 486 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 354 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 847 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
249 picks · 445 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:2
Team Liquid 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
57% · 38 games45% · 104 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangoliermiCKe
52% · 281 game47% · 247 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Enigma
Enigmazai
53% · 130 games48% · 199 games
Death ProphetELeVeN
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 111 games43% · 61 game
Vengeful SpiritDy
Vengeful Spirit
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
53% · 156 games57% · 105 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed29:6
Team Liquid 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
47% · 72 games47% · 133 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Pudge
PudgeMATUMBAMAN
54% · 63 games43% · 18 games
Lone Druidlou
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
48% · 125 games47% · 35 games
Primal BeastELeVeN
Primal Beast
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
57% · 25 games52% · 170 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
51% · 164 games52% · 93 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2