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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 22 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 17 games
59%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 15 games
53%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 18 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 740 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 914 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 607 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
429 picks · 194 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
429 picks · 326 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 683 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 718 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Team Liquid 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
50% · 179 games49% · 127 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
52% · 75 games52% · 49 games
ViperXm
Viper
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
50% · 105 games58% · 44 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
50% · 185 games48% · 287 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
45% · 137 games51% · 174 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:4
Team Liquid 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
53% · 226 games47% · 74 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Doom
Doom33
52% · 265 games40% · 73 games
LinaXm
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
57% · 139 games46% · 182 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
48% · 148 games48% · 305 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
59% · 93 games51% · 237 games
BatriderDy
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed19:28
Team Liquid 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
49% · 107 games39% · 66 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
53% · 97 games53% · 185 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
53% · 219 games48% · 179 games
BloodseekerXm
Bloodseeker
Techies
TechiesBoxi
52% · 206 games49% · 168 games
ClockwerkDy
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
53% · 110 games50% · 141 game
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 50%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3