DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 32 games
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 24 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 26 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 731 bans
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 568 bans
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 356 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 778 bans
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 934 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Team Liquid 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNisha
RazorXm
LifestealermiCKe
HoodwinkXinQ
Brewmaster33
Faceless VoidAme
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Shadow DemonBoxi
DisruptorDy
Game 2prediction correct56:40
Team Liquid 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:13:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangermiCKe
Drow RangerAme
Bristleback33
TimbersawXxs
TinyNisha
Storm SpiritXm
TuskBoxi
Nyx AssassinXinQ
OracleiNSaNiA
DisruptorDy
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2