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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
84%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 32 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
494 picks · 426 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
455 picks · 539 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
448 picks · 562 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 568 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 233 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 786 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 437 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 589 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Team Liquid 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
46% · 191 game50% · 464 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
49% · 244 games52% · 163 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
52% · 287 games52% · 239 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
48% · 371 game49% · 264 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
50% · 428 games51% · 391 game
Shadow DemonPoloson
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Team Liquid 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
45% · 113 games47% · 409 games
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
49% · 313 games53% · 55 games
ViperXm
Viper
Puck
PuckNisha
55% · 235 games52% · 176 games
Dawnbreakerniu
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
46% · 413 games52% · 452 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
48% · 344 games53% · 326 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2