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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 36 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 27 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 31 game
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 28 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 25 games
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 328 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 575 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 228 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 354 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 478 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 231 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 845 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
314 picks · 821 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:32
Team Liquid 69%Xtreme Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
51% · 296 games52% · 39 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Tiny
TinymiCKe
53% · 341 game47% · 206 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
SlardarAce
52% · 260 games50% · 412 games
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Beastmaster
Lich
LichtOfu
49% · 73 games51% · 407 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
56% · 465 games43% · 371 game
Rubickfy
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Team Liquid 67%Xtreme Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
53% · 315 games47% · 396 games
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
50% · 190 games52% · 130 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
52% · 344 games52% · 187 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
46% · 253 games51% · 320 games
Rubickfy
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
51% · 114 games47% · 183 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed36:55
Team Liquid 69%Xtreme Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:14:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
46% · 229 games40% · 38 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
51% · 131 game49% · 105 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Doom
DoomAce
49% · 99 games53% · 239 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesBoxi
49% · 39 games53% · 88 games
Nyx Assassinfy
Nyx Assassin
Elder Titan
Elder TitantOfu
56% · 24 games55% · 52 games
LichxNova
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3