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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
63%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
627 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 549 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1120 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
382 picks · 203 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total83% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Team Liquid 70%Yakult Brothers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
53% · 390 games54% · 221 game
Medusaflyfly
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
43% · 167 games55% · 181 game
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
49% · 267 games52% · 297 games
Dragon KnightEmo
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
41% · 281 game53% · 311 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Bane
BanetOfu
49% · 114 games51% · 209 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 83%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1