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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 18 games
56%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 408 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 398 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 466 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 192 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 263 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 859 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Team Lynx 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna7jesu
44% · 76 games57% · 6 games
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
57% · 104 games47% · 267 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
53% · 204 games40% · 205 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
57% · 255 games54% · 254 games
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickQBFY
57% · 108 games35% · 15 games
LichRein
Lich
Game 2prediction missed5:22
Team Lynx 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by 1w Team in 20:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark7jesu
54% · 58 games46% · 227 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 182 games43% · 297 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
44% · 321 game51% · 200 games
SlardarSquad1x
Slardar
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
50% · 108 games59% · 28 games
Techiesswedenstrong
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
48% · 171 game60% · 88 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed32:38
Team Lynx 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:12:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer7jesu
51% · 10 games66% · 13 games
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
53% · 176 games46% · 319 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 117 games38% · 20 games
Necrophosмистер мораль
Necrophos
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
43% · 129 games52% · 161 game
RubickRein
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
51% · 192 games54% · 111 games
Largoswedenstrong
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 53%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3