European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Sand King
mellojul · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
Ilbirs eSports
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 2 games
Faceless Void
xsvampire · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
egx · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 420 bans
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 956 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 567 bans
Warlock
405 picks · 249 bans
Tiny
399 picks · 452 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Team Lynx 75%Ilbirs eSports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
TinkerRain
Leshracmellojul
PangolierNorma
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Beastmasteregx
Tuskkreker
Hoodwinkxsvampire
RingmasterQBFY
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Team Lynx 76%Ilbirs eSports 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 19:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
BeastmasterRain
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Lifestealeregx
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
MarsNorma
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Jakirokreker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 89%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2