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DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Inner Circleloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 17 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 17 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 16 games
63%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 25 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 21 game
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 774 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 521 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
456 picks · 312 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1119 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 802 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 599 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total79% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 79%Inner Circle 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 79%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1