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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
mellojul · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
403 picks · 366 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 187 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 880 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
306 picks · 353 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 804 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 694 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total80% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:45
Team Lynx 20%Kalmychata 80%
The model gave 80% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 48:46.
Game 2prediction correct11:28
Team Lynx 20%Kalmychata 80%
The model gave 80% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 80%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2