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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 29 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 28 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
56%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 24 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
45%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
41%

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 22 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
84%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 334 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 470 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 515 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 489 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 646 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 305 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
267 picks · 190 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
266 picks · 338 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:41
Team Lynx 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:10:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
46% · 122 games53% · 105 games
SvenWoE
Sven
Puck
Puckmellojul
50% · 504 games48% · 449 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 225 games55% · 242 games
LargoBb3px
Largo
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 177 games46% · 280 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskkreker
52% · 359 games54% · 311 games
ClockwerkHtrd
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed27:13
Team Lynx 41%Level UP 59%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
49% · 258 games52% · 121 game
LunaWoE
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
45% · 173 games56% · 405 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 281 game51% · 291 game
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
45% · 260 games54% · 214 games
Ringmasterqueezy
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
46% · 239 games55% · 180 games
MiranaHtrd
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct11:39
Team Lynx 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosTA2000
44% · 123 games54% · 117 games
MuertaWoE
Muerta
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
51% · 218 games56% · 313 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 544 games53% · 237 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Mirana
Miranakreker
52% · 217 games49% · 493 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
46% · 302 games49% · 244 games
ClockwerkHtrd
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 65%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3