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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 16 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
young G · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
420 picks · 387 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
392 picks · 196 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 893 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
315 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 231 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 680 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 813 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:22
Team Lynx 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa7jesu
56% · 107 games41% · 89 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Bristleback
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
57% · 154 games47% · 34 games
Faceless Voidbashka
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
49% · 91 game50% · 68 games
Night StalkerCovisnine
Night Stalker
46% · 161 game
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct12:17
Team Lynx 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord7jesu
46% · 36 games44% · 160 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerVladikTheHtiviy
56% · 149 games56% · 75 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
52% · 260 games52% · 123 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
43% · 87 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed27:22
Team Lynx 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade7jesu
47% · 111 games59% · 14 games
Faceless Voidbashka
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
Timbersawmellojul
53% · 68 games54% · 83 games
Leshracyoung G
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 63 games47% · 58 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
43% · 87 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3