European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Slardarsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 11 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 8 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
353 picks · 324 bans
Puck
331 picks · 831 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 154 bans
Pugna
289 picks · 325 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 246 bans
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
Team Lynx 31%Pipsqueak+4 69%
The model gave 69% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
SvenNande
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Queen of Painmellojul
AxePalantimos
53% · 158 games
BatriderKaori
53% · 77 games
SilencerKidaro
Game 2prediction correct29:51
Team Lynx 32%Pipsqueak+4 68%
The model gave 68% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet7jesu
MarciNande
Earthshakermellojul
Leshracxn丶e
SlardarfortniteMan
BristlebackPalantimos
51% · 137 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
37% · 136 games
WarlockKidaro
Game 3prediction missed33:16
Team Lynx 28%Pipsqueak+4 72%
The model gave 72% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade7jesu
Anti-MageNande
Ember Spiritmellojul
BristlebackPalantimos
MarsfortniteMan
Queen of Painxn丶e
50% · 190 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
54% · 120 games
SilencerKidaro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 83%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3