DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South America Rejectswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
South America Rejects
Grimstroke
Scofield · 12 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Wits · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
489 picks · 383 bans
Hoodwink
482 picks · 251 bans
Phoenix
480 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
440 picks · 377 bans
Puck
370 picks · 895 bans
Shadow Demon
368 picks · 927 bans
Beastmaster
364 picks · 818 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:8
Team Lynx 44%South America Rejects 56%
The model gave 56% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna7jesu
NecrophosWits
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Queen of PainDarkMago
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
PangolierFrank
WindrangerQBFY
EnchantressElmisho
Tuskkreker
Shadow DemonScofield
Game 2prediction correct12:48
Team Lynx 45%South America Rejects 55%
The model gave 55% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade7jesu
TinyWits
Queen of Painmellojul
PangolierDarkMago
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
SlardarFrank
Techieskreker
Skywrath MageScofield
HoodwinkQBFY
BatriderElmisho
Game 3prediction correct20:44
Team Lynx 44%South America Rejects 56%
The model gave 56% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
Shadow FiendWits
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
SlardarDarkMago
Sand Kingmellojul
Legion CommanderFrank
HoodwinkQBFY
Skywrath MageScofield
Venomancerkreker
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 63%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3