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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 7 games
86%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 43 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 33 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 26 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
741 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 640 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
523 picks · 277 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1186 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 698 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
423 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 451 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
370 picks · 237 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total83% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:17
Team Lynx 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
50% · 260 games57% · 37 games
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
47% · 302 games53% · 258 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
45% · 143 games60% · 251 game
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
48% · 122 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
44% · 37 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct11:28
Team Lynx 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer7jesu
54% · 183 games47% · 148 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
49% · 276 games47% · 65 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Slardar
Slardarmellojul
47% · 212 games58% · 137 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
47% · 149 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
50% · 172 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 83%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2