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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
30%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
25%
Axe
Axe
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 46 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 26 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
64%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
628 picks · 262 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 596 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
559 picks · 721 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 324 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
523 picks · 257 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 563 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
462 picks · 434 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 634 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total78% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
Team Lynx 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger7jesu
69% · 12 games59% · 33 games
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Puck
Puckmellojul
49% · 266 games56% · 28 games
ViperWorick
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 178 games46% · 82 games
Night StalkerNefrit
Night Stalker
48% · 94 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
47% · 219 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct15:22
Team Lynx 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin7jesu
52% · 133 games62% · 45 games
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Puck
Puckmellojul
52% · 187 games50% · 38 games
ViperWorick
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
40% · 129 games51% · 172 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
50% · 137 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
47% · 57 games
Skywrath MageMoOz
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed27:8
Team Lynx 34%Zero Tenacity 66%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer7jesu
43% · 143 games55% · 129 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
51% · 80 games51% · 35 games
HuskarKami
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
61% · 164 games44% · 188 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
27% · 7 games
TechiesMoOz
Techies
39% · 28 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 78%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3